ANSWER:

This question has been posed by so many people over so many years that I thought it was time for an “official” answer. 

To the neophyte, the world of trading is all about forecasting. They think, “If I could just forecast what�s going to happen, then I could make money.” In fact, the entire financial industry is founded on the assumption “you can�t make money unless you can accurately predict the future.” This is what I call the “Forecasting Paradigm” and is the foundation of nearly every product and service offered to the investing public.

Unfortunately, the “Forecasting Paradigm” is false. For example, do you have to predict the future to get there? Do you have to predict the direction of a river to make it to the ocean? Do you have to predict the direction of the wind to man a sailboat? Does a doctor “predict” you have a tumor or does he observe it on an x-ray and inform you of its existence? 

Successful trading is about risk management, market observation and stop movement, NOT about forecasting. It depends on your ability to remove opinion and emotion from the process and learn to “go with the flow,” doing what the market tells you to do instead of you telling it what it should do. 

The recommendations in my NEoWave Trading service are the result of a paradigm shift in my understanding of how markets operate and how to trade them. I�m sure long-term subscribers have noticed this shift over the years. The result of more than 20 years of studying markets, this is what my cutting-edge, NEELY RIVER trading technology is all about. NEELY RIVER Technology addresses and eliminates all the problems associated with trading failure, allowing you to “naturally evolve” into a successful investor. Furthermore, by eliminating the “Forecasting Paradigm” from the trading process, it allows you to dramatically reduce the time spent looking at markets and completely eliminates the time spent trying to predict them. 

Realizing long ago the difference between trading and forecasting, I separated my NEoWave services into two, distinct products – the educationally oriented Chart service and the profit oriented Trading service. Some prefer making their own trading decisions (based on my NEoWave forecasts in the chart service), while others prefer taking advantage of my trading expertise to guide them through the process successfully.

ANSWER:

This very important question was sent in by Afshin Pishdad of Ontario, Canada. It would be great if we could all accomplish what so many trading books on wave theory espouse. Unfortunately, in the real world, what they don’t tell you (or they simply don’t know) is that wave structure is ONLY clear during wave-1, wave-5, wave-c (in Flats), wave-e (in Triangles), wave-g (in NEoWave Diametrics) and wave-i (in NEoWave Symmetricals). In other words, during the first or last wave of most patterns. Even then, unless there is sufficient detail, certainty and confidence can be low. The closer to the center of a formation a market is, the greater the level of uncertainty experienced and the greater the number of potential outcomes. 

Ironically, it is when a market is near the center of its development that most (due to confusion) seek out “advice” from experts – right at the time wave “experts” are most likely to be wrong. When near a major top or bottom (i.e, at the start or end of a trend), the public is usually convinced they know what is going to happen (wrongly so) and, as a result, have little interest in what analysts (wave or otherwise) have to say. That is exactly the time when wave analysts are most likely to be right, but at the same time ridiculed or ostracized for their opinions! What a sad state of affairs.