بایگانی برچسب برای: نئوویو

مدت زیادی از تحلیل اول شاوان می گذره و از موقعی که سیگنال خرید روی 1200 داده شد طی یک فعالیت مثلثی بسیار کند خودش را به تارگت داده شده در 1600 رساند و پس از پایان دیامتریکی که دنبالش بودیم فعلا بازاری نزولی را برای شاوان تا چندین ماه پیش بینی می کنم.این دیامتریک زمان بسیار زیادی را نسبت به دو موج قبل از خودش صرف کرده اما موجب افزایش قیمت کمی  شده است ، از این رو به نظر با یک فعالیت مثلثی بسیار بزرگ (احتمالا از نوع همگرا) طرف هستیم که این دیامتریک می تواند موج C از آن باشد. در هر صورت با فرض درست بودن این دیامتریک ، بازار باید ماه ها نزولی/رنج گردد و فعلا فقط باید نگاه کرد و بس!

در زیر تکمیل الگوی انتظاری را که در حدود 10 ماه طول کشید ، در کش دیتای هفتگی می توانید مشاهده فرمایید:

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-186

In expanding Triangles, is it necessary for wave-d to “overlap” wave-b?

ANSWER:

In all Triangles (expanding, contracting or neutral), it is essential that a portion of the price range of wave-d “overlap” a portion of the vertical price coverage of wave-b. It is also possible (especially in expanding Triangles) that the entire range of wave-b will be “engulfed” by the price range of wave-d but such behavior is not mandatory.

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-185

In a contracting triangle, can the e-leg be larger in price than the d-leg?

ANSWER:

The rules that make up a contracting Triangle are as follows…

1- Wave-a must be the longest in price of waves-a, c & e

2- Wave-e must be the shortest in price of waves-a, c & e

3- Wave-d must alternate in multiple ways to wave-b (price or time or complexity or structure)

4- Wave-d must trade at least part of the time in the same price range as wave-b

If the above rules are met, even if wave-e is longer than wave-d, then a contracting Triangle may be forming.

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-184

Your book does not mention “leading diagonals” (i.e., a Terminal in the position of wave-1 or wave-a). Many Elliott Wave analysts recognize such patterns; do you think they exist?

ANSWER:

No, they don’t exist. Such assumptions are caused by the absence of a rigid, logical rule set in the original theory relating to post-pattern behavior requirements. Under NEoWave, every Wave pattern must follow an extensive list of rules for its labeling to be possible. Afterward, and most importantly, post-pattern price action must confirm the analyst’s assumptions by producing specific, defined behavior. The rigidity NEoWave brings to market analysis does not exist in orthodox Elliott Wave. That lack of rigidity is the cause of many inaccurate forecasts and false structural assumptions, such as “leading diagonals” and W-X-Y pattern groupings. In the second example (W-X-Y), I don’t even know why that was created because it is completely unnecessary and can cause foundational, orthodox Elliott Wave rules to be broken.

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-183

It was my belief that no leg of a Triangle, except for wave-e, could itself be a Triangle. Am I correct?

ANSWER:

In 1990, when I released Mastering Elliott Wave (MEW), that was also my assumption. The statements in MEW were derived from 7 years of personal experience trading, forecasting markets and teaching Wave analysis. At the time of MEW’s release, I had only witnessed one bull market and the start of one bear market; so, my market experience was limited. During the 25 years following its release, I’ve discovered neutral Triangles, 3rd-extension Terminals, Diametrics and Symmetrical patterns. All those new Wave phenomenon are explained in the Education section of the new NEoWave website – https://www.neowave.com/product-book.asp). 

What I’ve come to realize, over 32 years, is that legs of a Triangle (if enough complexity is present) tend to mimic the behavior of the Triangle itself. So, if a Triangle is contracting, its last leg frequently contracts. If a neutral Triangle is forming, the c-wave or the e-wave has a strong tendency to produce a neutral Triangle. If an expanding Triangle is forming, wave-e has a propensity to form an expanding Triangle. 

As an important end note, if your chart contains so much complexity that you can see a smaller Triangle form as wave-a of the larger Triangle, then your chart is TOO complex and must be simplified to avoid the subjectivity that comes with high structural complexity.

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-182

If wave-B (in any pattern) takes less time than wave-A, can I confidently assume a ZigZag or Flat is NOT underway but instead that a Triangle or Diametric is forming?

ANSWER:

Yes