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پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-93

(93) New Tips & Hints

In a Running correction, what is the maximum wave-b can exceed the end of wave 1?

ANSWER:

A Running correction is a Flat in which wave-b terminates much higher (if the larger-degree trend is up) than the top of the previous advance (or much lower than the bottom of the previous decline if the larger-degree trend is down). For the rest of this explanation, let’s assume the larger-degree trend is up and the advance before wave-b is wave-1 (it could also be wave-A). In all cases, the behavior of wave-b signals the strength of the market’s future advance. The higher wave-b ends above the top of wave-1, the stronger and larger wave-3 becomes. This concept is part of NEoWave Logic, which says a strong correction MUST produce a strong future move. 

If you measure the length of wave-1 (in the above example), wave-b should NOT top higher than 61.8% of wave-1 added to the top of wave-1. If wave-b exceeds that level, it is nearly certain a running correction is not unfolding and some other scenario is developing.

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پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-92

(92) New Tips & Hints

If NEELY RIVER technology allows one to trade effectively without forecasting, does wave analysis offer any advantage?

ANSWER:

Great question! Every market technique has its advantages and disadvantages. One of the advantages of wave theory is it provides the user tools to pinpoint major market turns. If you need to plan far into the future, that can be a tremendous benefit. For example, knowledge a major top was forming in the S&P in 2000 allowed me to hedge my mother’s stock portfolio throughout the 2000 to 2002 bear market. Instead of suffering a 50% decline in value, as many did, her account was UP nearly 50% during the same period. 

Unfortunately, as a market moves away from a major turn, wave structure can be indecipherable for extended periods, which is one of the disadvantages of wave theory. For example, wave structure was mostly unclear from 2003 through 2006. At that time I could only predict the S&P would trend sideways-or-up, but I could not specifically predict day-to-day, week-to-week or even month-to-month action. 

When wave structure is not clear that is when NEELY RIVER can be very useful. It allows you to safely trade a market having no knowledge of what will come next. The purpose of Neely River is to enter a market at an inflection point, wait for a reaction, then lower risk to zero. At that point it no longer matters what happens next. If the inflection point turns out to be a top or bottom, you’ll have a great trade. If not, you’ll breakeven. If your goal is to make money trading, it doesn’t get much better than that. 

Elliott Wave and NEoWave are all about predicting future market behavior, which is great when markets are near the end of a trend and predictable. Neely River is all about trading technology, not forecasting, which is perfect for the 70-80% of the time a market is NOT at the end of a trend and is not predictable.

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پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-91

(91) New Tips & Hints

Is there a rule that can be used to determine if a move is an A,B,C or the 1,2,3 of an ongoing impulsion?

ANSWER:

Orthodox Elliott Wave analysts have NO rules to differentiate between a concluding A, B, C zigzag or a still-forming 1,2,3,4,5 impulsion. Fortunately, if you employ advanced NEoWave concepts, there IS a way to decide whether a zigzag (or Triangle) is ending or an impulsion is continuing to form. 

It is my discovery that 3-legged corrections exhibit very different TIME relationships than impulsions. Under NEoWave, the fewer legs a pattern contains, the greater the time difference allowed between each segment. As a result, flats and zigzags (compared to all other patterns) exhibit the most significant differences in time between waves-A, B and C. Therefore, if in your developing pattern you measure the time consumed by the first two segments (A and B or 1 and 2), and you find the first takes more time than the second, a Triangle (not a Zizgag) is forming. If the second takes between 100% and 261.8% of the time of the first, a Zigzag or Impulsion is possible. If the second takes more than 300% of the first, a Zigzag is forming.

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پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-90

(90) New Tips & Hints

Can the middle wave of any corrective formation be the shortest in length? I know NEoWave says it can never be the shortest in time?

ANSWER:

It is actually very common for the middle leg of a 3 legged formaiton (i.e., wave-b in a zigzag or flat) or 7 legged formation (i.e., wave-d of a NEoWave Diametric) to be the shortest in price.

On the other hand, the middle leg of 5 and 9 legged corrections (wave-c in Triangles and wave-e in NEoWave Symmetricals, respectively) should NEVER be the shortest in price.

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پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-89

(89) New Tips & Hints

Which charting service do you recommend in order to get the best cash data plot?

ANSWER:

This is a great question sent in by a customer in Bahrain. It took me a long time to find a reliable, cash data source that allows me to copy and paste values into Excel, which then is used to draw ALL the charts you see in all NEoWave Trading and Forecasting services.

The service I recommend is BarChart.com which costs about $20/month. The symbols I use to get the cash data for the markets I follow are…

S&P – $INX

Notes – V2Y0 (who knows what that is supposed to stand for)

Gold – GCY0

Euro – ECY0

You can sign up for this service at www.barchart.com 

I don’t get anything out of recommending this service, but tell them NEoWave sent you, anyway.

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پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-88

(88) New Tips & Hints

You mention in Mastering Elliott Wave, on page 5-25, the concept of touchpoints within a Triangle. How important is this rule and does it always apply?

ANSWER:

The NEoWave Rule of Touchpoints is essential to good pattern development. Many times I’ve seen orthodox Elliott Wave analysts encase contracting (or expanding) price action where every wave segment (0-A-B-C-D-E) is touching one of the two channels; instantly I know that count will eventually have to be changed. 

Under NEoWave, contracting and expanding Triangles should never have more than two touchpoints on the top channel and two on the bottom channel. This means waves-B and D will create the baseline, but the start of the Triangle (point 0) will not fall on the same channel. On the other side, either waves-A and C or C and E will create a channel (rarely will it be waves-A and E), but the third of the three will NOT touch the channel. Following the above channeling rules is essential for reliable forecasting and stable wave structure. 

Whenever you see a Triangle channel perfectly you know something will happen to delay its conclusion and the pattern will simply get more complex. It is possible for a Zigzag or a Flat to channel perfectly. This is where points 0 and B and A and C all touch parallel trendlines. But, any time a Flat or Zigzag channels perfectly, it tells you that pattern will be followed by an X-wave to become part of a larger, more complex corrective formation (see Chapter 8 of Mastering Elliott Wave).

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