پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-35

In an Impulsive pattern, how important is the Rule of Extension?

ANSWER:

For those in the orthodox Elliott Wave (OEW) camp, the Rule of Extension is a hit-and-miss affair. If a pattern appears to be impulsive, but lacks an extended wave, most OEWer`s say “well, the rule of extension is just a guideline.” As with all aspects of NEoWave theory, there are no guidelines, just rules. The Rule of Extension, under NEoWave theory, is essential. If an advance or decline of a non-Terminal nature is suspected of being impulsive, but does not possess an extended wave, that advance or decline is a complex correction. 

What qualifies a move as an “extended wave”? Well, in an impulsive pattern, wave-1, 3 or 5 MUST be at least 161.8% of the smallest wave of the three. More typically, the extended wave will be 1.618%+ of the next largest wave among 1, 3 or 5. In a Terminal pattern, a unique impulsive formation that is composed completely of corrections, wave-1, 3 or 5 will be longer than the others, but it does not have to be 161.8%+ of the smallest wave in the group.

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-34

How much importance do you place on volume, open interest and other market data?

ANSWER:

This question was sent in by Milind Karandikar (another client from India). To many`s surprise, I never use market information other than price action to create or validate any of my wave counts. Looking for non-priced-based data to confirm wave structure is analogous to a doctor “confirming” a patients condition by asking his mother how he feels instead of simply asking the patient how he feels. One answer is “right from the source” while the other is based on opinion or observation, which will be substantially clouded by how the observer feels. Obviously, asking the patient (the price action) how he feels will produce far more accurate information than asking the relatives (volume, open interest, stochastics, oscillators, moving averages, etc.). As a result, I recommend all wave analysis and assessment be done without the use of any technical “crutches.”

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-33

In a Double Three Running Correction, how large can wave-X get?

ANSWER:

This question was posed by Mushtaq Khair, a client in Maharashtra, India (there seems to be a great deal of interest in NEoWave in India). The existence of a Double Three Running Correction is discussed for the first time in Mastering Elliott Wave (MEW), so should be considered part of NEoWave theory. The pattern is covered in detail on pages 8-11 to 8-15. So, how large can wave-X get in such a situation? 

First, let`s go over the time limits of X-waves in any pattern. Applying the NEoWave rule of Similarity and Balance on pages 4-3 through 4-7 of MEW (and considering that wave-X is the same degree as each individual A, B or C of the preceding pattern), an X-wave should NEVER take more time than the entire A-B-C correction before it. If it does, that would indicate wave-X is of a larger degree. 

If your X-wave adheres to the above NEoWave Time Limit rule, then the next test would be to make sure wave-X is between 138.2% and 261.8% of the distance of the longest wave of the prior A-B-C. If less than 138.2%, a Triangle, NEoWave Diametric or NEoWave Symmetrical pattern is probably forming. If more than 261.8%, wave-X is probably the start of a new trend or wave formation, not part of an ongoing Double Three Running Correction.

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-32

If a pattern looks like a 5-wave move, but lacks alternation, what does it mean?

ANSWER:

It means the pattern you are analyzing is not a 5-wave move. It is common for those practicing orthodox Elliott Wave to apply the rule of alternation when it is convenient to their interpretation, but ignore it when it does not serve their bullish or bearish bias. The rule of alternation is essential to the proper design of ALL wave patterns (see page 5-5 of Mastering Elliott Wave). If you want your wave counts to “stick,” and not require frequent changes, you must always employ the rule of alternation. Its absence from a series of waves is not a fluke, but an indication a rare NEoWave pattern (either a NEoWave Diametric or a NEoWave Symmetrical) is forming.

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-31

Does MEW cover all the ways the “Rule of Similarity and Balance” apply?

ANSWER:

MEW was written 16 years ago, when my understanding of wave theory was still growing and evolving. On page 4-4 of MEW I mention two areas of similarity – Price and Time. I now realize a third area – Complexity – should have been included. Therefore, when you are comparing one group of waves to another, to qualify as the same degree, the group with the least number of monowaves should contain at least 1/3 that of the more complex group.

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-30

How much detail (i.e., how many monowaves) should a chart contain?

ANSWER:

It is a common mistake by wave practioners to attempt analysis using a daily chart covering years and years. Accurate analysis requires attention to detail. The more detail a chart contains (that is, the more monowaves present), the more difficult detailed analysis becomes. 

For accurate wave analysis, you want to limit the complexity visible on a chart to between a Fibonacci 34 and 89 monowaves, with the ideal being around 55. Charts that contain 100`s of monowaves will cause one to miss the subtleties required for good analysis and charts with less than 34 monowaves may not contain enough information for a reliable conclusion.