پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-41

What is the most productive/efficient time frame to trade to maximize profits/minimize losses?

ANSWER:

This question was sent in by Eric Noel of Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. There are several aspects to that question, but the most important is the financial aspect. The more money one is working with, the larger the time frame that must be traded simply due to the issue of liquidity. The only way an extremely wealthy investor can enter or exit a large position is when a significant number of smaller investors want to do the opposite. This creates the two conditions commonly referred to as accumulation and distribution (respectively). 

If you are a large investor, the time frame that is most advantageous will be much larger than that of a small investor. The less money one has to invest, the shorter the time frame that must be traded in order to keep risk (as a percentage of total capital) close to the universally accepted “safe” levels of 1%-2%.

So, the answer to the above question is, “It depends on how much money you are working with.” If you are new to the business and don`t have much captial (less than $50,000), I recommend using an Hourly time frame to keep your risk low and gain trading experience. If you have at least a few years experience and at least $100,000 to invest, a Daily time frame is best. If you are working with $1 million or more, and have at least 10 years of investing experience, Weekly charts are probably best. If your investment capital is over $10 million, and you are not diversifying much, Monthly charts will be most efficient. If you are working with $100 million or more, Quarterly and Yearly charts will be required UNLESS you are diversifying into many different areas (i.e., stocks, futures, currencies, etc)

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-40

What is the most important thing in determining wave structure and where patterns begin and end?

ANSWER:

The customer who asked this question prefers to remain anonymous. If you have a question, but don`t want your name revealed, just let me know. 

With no hesitation, the most important thing to study in determining where one pattern ended and a new one began is wave behavior. This is a NEoWave concept and a very important advancement to orthodox Elliott Wave. Elliott Wave focuses on the structure of price action first, whereas NEoWave focuses first on the behavior of price action and structure second. 

For example, when a new pattern begins under NEoWave theory (except when following an Expanding Triangle), a market should always move further and faster than any previous move in the same direction during the previous formation. If that requirement is not met, it is nearly certain a pattern conclusion of one larger degree has not occurred. 

The requirement for every pattern to produce specific, post-pattern price action is a NEoWave concept that dramatically enhances the accuracy of wave theory and substantially reduces the need for constant count revisions – a common phenomenon under orthodox Elliott Wave.

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-39

What should be the structure of smaller internal waves of a larger Impulse Wave?

ANSWER:

Sent in by Jitendra Shah (location unknown), this question delves into the fractal nature of wave theory. 

There are two categories of Impulsive patterns (Trending and Terminal under NEoWave theory – Standard and Diagonal Triangle under orthodox Elliott Wave), which you can read about in Mastering Elliott Wave (Chapter 5). 

In a Trending Impulse, wave-1 will subdivide into 5 segments, wave-2 will be corrective (usually 3 segments), wave-3 will again be 5 segments, wave-4 will be corrective (usually 3 segments) and finally wave-5 will be 5 segments. 

In a Terminal Impulse, all waves (1, 2, 3, 4 & 5) will be corrective (normally 3 segments each) with waves- 1, 3 & 5 normally Zigzazgs (or complex corrections) and waves-2 and 4 normally Flats and Triangles (respectively).

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-38

Can two impulsive (or corrective) patterns occur one after the other, on the same time frame?

ANSWER:

This question was sent in by Dr. Mircea Dologa of Paris, France. He probably was introduced to NEoWave through my keynote speech at Andre Malpel`s 10,000-person Elliott Wave conference in Paris. 

If the back-to-back patterns in question are of a different degree, this type of behavior can be found every day on virtually any chart any day of the week and means very little. If the adjacent patterns are of the same degree, then it provides very important clues on the market`s current position and future behavior. 

When two corrective patterns of the same degree occur in sequence, the relationship between the two in price and time plays a vital role in determining NEoWave labeling. If the two patterns take almost the same amount of time, the second can be nearly any corrective pattern other than an x-wave. Again, if the two patterns consume almost the same amount of price, the second can be nearly any wave label other than an x-wave. The smaller the second corretion is in price or time (as long as it is at least 1/3 the price and time of the larger correction), the greater the odds an x-wave has occurred. 

When two impulsive patterns of the same degree occur next to each other, only one option is possible; the first impulsion is the end of a larger pattern and the second impulsion is wave-a (of a zigzag) or wave-1 of a new, ongoing trend.

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-37

Should fibonacci relationships be measured in absolute numbers or the distance covered on a log scale?

ANSWER:

Continuing the recent discussion on Fibonaccci relationships, one of our clients – Karun Verma from New Delhi, India – asked this great question. 

If you haven`t noticed, the media loves to present long-term, arithmetic charts because they create a dramatic effect, exaggerating recent market advances. In reality, economic progrress occurs in percentage terms, not in linear terms. Therefore, when possible, it is always best to plot data logarithmically and measure Fibonacci relationships based on the phsycial distance covered on the chart. On very short-term charts you can get away with arithmetic measurements, but when a market more than doubles, or drops more than 50% (in arithmetic terms), a logarithmic plot is essential for proper Fibonacci relationships.

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-36

Do you measure Fibonacci relationships from the beginning to end of a wave or from high to low?

ANSWER:

This question was sent in by Ahmad Pesnani. The way in which Fibonacci relatioships should be applied depends on various factors, such as whether the market is in an Impulsive or Corrective pattern, whether the pattern ends with a faliure and whether the correction you are dealing with is of a triangular nature or not.

In general, Fibonacci relationships occur “internally” in Impulsive patterns and “externally” in Corrective patterns. Internal relationships are those in which the length of each wave is measured (independent of the others), then compared. External relationships are identified by noting the price levels where waves start and stop, calculating the distance between those price levels, then identifying relationships between those distances. 

This issue is further complicated when patterns do not begin or end at the high or low of a trend. When that occurs, the best approach is to measure the length of each wave from both high to low, and beginning to end, selecting the approach that yields the best relationships for future application. 

For a much more detailed discussion of Internal and External Fibonacci relationships, go to page 12-22 of Mastering Elliott Wave.