پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-83

Can an X wave take place after a Flat even if the Flat does not channel “perfectly”?

ANSWER:

This question refers to the NEoWave concept of “touch points.” In Flats and Zigzags, there are only four (4) possible touch points along the two channels – the beginning of the pattern (point zero), wave-a, wave-b and wave-c. When any Flat or Zigzag has all of its touch points touching one of the two channels, under NEoWave it qualifies as “perfect channeling.” When a Flat or Zigzag channels perfectly, it tells us an x-wave will follow and the pattern will become part of a larger, more complex correction (like those shown in Chapter 8 of Mastering Elliott Wave). 

What the question above is asking is can an X-wave follow a Flat or Zigzag even if it does not channel perfectly…the answer is YES. But, keep in mind, an x-wave is mandatory when channeling is perfect, only possible when channeling is not perfect.

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-82

What is the maximum length of wave-c in an Elongated Flat and can wave-c be a Terminal in such a pattern?

ANSWER:

In a typical Flat, wave-c is normally a little longer or a little shorter than wave-a. As a result, it is unacceptable to allow wave-c to be more than 161.8% of wave-a in any standard Flat. 

The one characteristic that distinguishes a normal Flat from an elongated Flat is the size of wave-c in relation to wave-a. As wave-c reaches 161.8% of wave-a, it moves into “elongated” territory. The maximum acceptable length of wave-c in an elongated Flat is around 261.8%. Beyond that, some other pattern is probably forming.

Elongated Flats should only be allowed as a single segment of a larger Triangle, Diametric, Symmetrical or one phase of a Complex Correction. Lastly, an elongated c-wave can be a Terminal, but it must be the last leg of a larger formation. 

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-81

Why are the drawings of wave patterns in Mastering Elliott Wave so different from all other books on Elliott Wave?

ANSWER:

A great question that I have no great answer to. The diagrams in MEW are representative of reality; most books on EW inexplicably display unrealistic examples of price action, giving the reader a false impression of real-world pattern development. This problem dates all the way back to R.N. Elliott’s original works. Clearly, it is easier to show impulse patterns as one idealized formation rather than display three separate phenomenon (with at least two variations each). But, unfortunately, taking that diagrammatical short-cut does not help the beginner make the leap from student to practiioner.

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-80

You don’t mention Fibonacci relationships much in your updates. What use or benefit does Fibonacci have in NEoWave?

ANSWER:

The usefulness and reliability of Fibonacci relationships, as they relate to proper wave counting, is widely misunderstood and greatly exaggerated. This may, in part, be due to the computer revolution since computers can calculate Fibonacci relationships so easily on a chart that their usefulness has been diminished. 

To begin, the greatest fallacy regarding Fibonacci relationships is that they should be applied to the corrections following waves-1 and 3 and waves-a (plus wave-c in a Triangle). Fibonacci relationships are NOT reliable when applied to waves going in opposite directions, but ONLY reliable when applied to waves of the same pattern going in the same direction. You might want to read that sentence again to let it sink in. 

In large, complex corrective environments (which the S&P has been in the last 7 years), Fibonacci relationships will be less reliable since structure is less reliable. Also, in general, Fibonacci relationships are more useful in impulsions and less useful in corrections. 

As they relate to NEoWave, I use Fibonacci relationships as a way of determining the minimum and maximum potential of a move, but not the exact length of a current or future wave. For example, in a Flat, I would not allow wave-c to be less then 38.2% and not more than 261.8% of wave-a. In an implusion, I would not allow wave-5 to be less than 38.2%, and not more than 261.8%, of the next largest wave (either 1 o 3).

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-79

What is the importance of channeling and how do you use it?

ANSWER:

In my opinion, channeling is misunderstood and is mistakenly used as a predictor of future price action. The reality is that channeling is much more effective in identifying turning points than in predicting future market action. 

As part of NEoWave theory, channeling is best used to identify the conclusion points of waves-2, 4, b and d. It is virtually useless in identifying the conclusion of waves-1, 3, 5, a, c or e. Discussed in detail on page 5-9 of Mastering Elliott Wave (MEW), the most important use for channeling is in identifying the conclusion of wave-2 of an impulsive pattern. As shown at the top of page 5-10, if what you mark as a “0-2” trendline is broken soon afterward, the “0-2” trendline must be adjusted and shifted to the right, concluding wave-2 later. If after that second point, the market does not rally at least 61.8% of wave-1, and the channel is broken again, wave-2’s conclusion must again be shifted into the future. 

Under orthodox Elliott Wave, most people call this a series of 1-2’s of decreasing degree, but logic (and future behavior) nearly always forces the person who attempts this process to change their count later, which means the assumption was wrong from the start. 

If you want your counts to be correct both in current time and into the future, you must make sure there is a clean line from the start of wave-1 to the end of wave-2 OR that wave-2 finishes after (and higher) than the last touch point created by the “0-2” trendline.

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-78

In MEW you say the thurst out of a Running, Contracting Triangle can be up to 261.8% of the largest leg of the Triangle. Is this a strict rule or just a guideline?

ANSWER:

This question was sent in by Ahmad Pesnani (location unknown); it addresses on of the few sections of MEW that I feel needs revision. 

It has been nearly 20 years since I wrote MEW. The additional years of experience since indicate a 261.8% thrust can ONLY occur after a non-Limiting Triangle, not a b-wave or 4th wave Triangle. You should limit thrusts out of b-wave and 4th wave Triangles to a maximum near 161.8% of the largest wave of the Triangle. 

The above statements should be considered important “must follow” rules, not just guidelines.