پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-107

In past NEoWave TRADING reports you have talked about market declines being faster than rallies or vice versa. Can you explain how you determine such things?

ANSWER:

It is a NEoWave axiom that markets always move the fastest in the direction of the psychological trend (which can be independent of the price trend). For example, if Gold rallies $100 in 100 days, then declines $50 in the next 100 days, the psychological trend is up. 

Where NEoWave diverges from orthodox Elliott Wave, and most practitioners of technical analysis, is that this concept holds true EVEN IF the move in the direction of the trend is smaller. For example, if Gold rallies $100 in 100 days, and then is followed by a $150 decline over 200 days, NEoWave still assumes the psychological “trend” is UP because the $100 up move has a greater price/time ratio. Under NEoWave, the faster $100 move is “with the trend” (probably wave-A of a Flat in this case) even though it is smaller in price. The $150 move is slower, so usually “counter-trend” and will probably wave-B of a Flat in this situation. 

When I study wave charts, what is MOST important and what I look for first is the largest, fastest move on the chart. That is where I then begin my analysis. From there I make the assumption that largest, fastest move is WITH the trend (which means it must be wave-1, 3, 5, A, C, E, G or I and cannot be wave-2, 4, B, D, F, H or X). By applying time and retracement rules to what is left, you can almost always begin your wave analysis from the right place with the correct labels. This is the reason I virtually never have alternate wave counts on my Forecasting services (unlike most orthodox Elliott Wave practitioners) and why my wave counts usually stay on track for such long periods.

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-106

When you set your stop loss, what do you consider most important?

ANSWER:

Once you enter a market, the stop-loss level you choose is the most critical step (and for many, the most difficult) in the trading process. It will decide whether you get stopped out too early, whether you are risking too much of your capital on a single trade and whether you give back too much of your profits following a good run.

I searched for the answer to this question for over 20 years and finally began to arrive at some conclusions within the last 5 years, which has evolved into my NEELY RIVER trading technology. The only way you can place orders at the correct point in an uptrend or downtrend is to understand which group is “in charge” of that trend. How do you do that? According to Neely River theory, there are only three ways to trade an uptrend and three ways to trade a downtrend, no matter who you are and no matter what system or philosophy you favor. 

IF YOU BELIEVE THE MARKET IS IN AN UPTREND

1. You can attempt to pick the top, which requires you sell into new highs.

2. You can be a trend follower, which means you are buying into new highs.

3. The last way you can trade an uptrend is by buying market pull-backs AFTER a suspected low has occurred (somewhere in the 33-66% retracement area).

IF YOU BELIEVE THE MARKET IS IN AN DOWNTREND

1. You can attempt to pick the bottom, which requires you buy into new lows.

2. You can be a trend follower, which means you are selling into new lows.

3. The last way you can trade a downtrend is by selling market pull-backs AFTER a suspected high has occurred (somewhere in the 33-66% retracement area).

If a market is actually in an uptrend, all (or nearly all) those who are trading as if it is in a downtrend will lose money (so at least 50% will be wrong from the start). Next, of those in the bullish crowd, depending on the character of the uptrend (chaotic, drifting or trending), the manner in which you enter the market, place stops and exit will determine whether you make or lose money. In any uptrend, it is extremely rare for all three trading styles to do well. The market will almost always test the trading strategy and stop placement of at least 1/3 of the bullish crowd. Frequently it will test 2/3’s, which leaves only 1/3 of 1/2 (i.e., 1/6 or just 12.5%) of all traders actually making money in an uptrend (no wonder trading is so hard). 

To trade successfully, you need to trade in a manner consistent with that 12.5% group who is on the right side of the market and placing stops in the correct manner. How do you do that? Study the way each group places stops and make sure your stop placement strategy is consistent with those “in charge” (or in sync) with the current rhythm of the market. The way that is accomplished is what NEELY RIVER theory is all about and what I teach in my private, one-on-one trading classes.

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-105

Since Mastering Elliott Wave, have you developed new ways of applying TIME to categorize corrections?

ANSWER:

In Mastering Elliott Wave (MEW) I cover general TIME relationships as they apply to impulsions and corrections, but a more sophisticated perspective has emerged since I wrote MEW nearly 20 years ago. Below is a description of how TIME behaves in Flats, Zigzags, Triangles, Diametrics, Symmetricals and Impulsions.

FLATS and ZIGZAGS (3 segment patterns)

1. The time differences between waves in Flats and Zigzags is greater than in any other correction.

2. If waves-a and b are about equal in time, wave-c will usually equal a+b in time.

3. If wave-b is much larger than wave-a in time, wave-c will equal the time of (a+b)/2.

4. Wave-b can NEVER take less time than wave-a in a Flat or Zigzag. 

5. Based on the above, this means wave-c always takes more time than wave-a in Flats and Zigzags.

6. Over all other corrections, Zigzags allow for the greatest price differences between waves. 

TRIANGLES (5 segment patterns)

1. Time differences between waves in a Triangle continue to be measurable, but are less obvious than what is seen in Flats and Zigzags.

2. If waves-a and b are about equal in time, wave-c will equal a+b in time.

3. If wave-b is much larger than wave-a in time, wave-c will equal the time of (a+b)/2.

4. Wave-b is allowed to take less time than wave-a IF it is smaller than wave-a in price. If it does, it almost always means the Triangle will possess what I call NEoWave Reverse Alternation (read about this in the Question of the Week section by doing a search for “Reverse Alternation”). 

5. Based on the above, this means wave-c always takes more time than wave-a in Flats and Zigzags.

DIAMETRICS (7 segment patterns)

1. These patterns began to appear in the early 90’s as the market’s way to adjust to the increasing popularity of wave theory (too many people were looking for the same things, so the market created new ways of behaving). 

2. They were the first patterns I witnessed where most wave segments took about the same amount of time, with one or two of the waves consuming a little more (or little less) time than the others. 

3. While most waves consume a similar amount of time, they do NOT consume a similar amount of price. A Diametric will possess an obvious expansionary or contractionary bias during the first four waves of the pattern; that bias will reverse during the second half of the formation. 

SYMMETRICALS (9 segment patterns)

1. This pattern emerged around 2001 as the S&P went through its transition from a bull to bear market for the first time in more than a decade. 

2. Their unique characteristic is that most of their waves consume about the same amount of time and price. Two of the waves may consume a little more (or a little less) time than the others and two of the waves (possibly the same two) will consume a little more (or a little less) price than the others. 

3. Of all patterns, Symmetricals all for the least price and time differences between waves. 

What we can derive from the above list, which is a NEoWave discovery, is that 3-segment corrections allow for the greatest time differences. As you move through 5, 7 and 9 segment formations, the allowed price and time differences continue to diminish with Symmetricals allowing for the least price and time differences between waves.

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-104

We all know Wave Theory is best suited for stock averages and non-consumable items, not individual companies. Using only price data to count waves, how can one pick the best stocks?

ANSWER:

This is a great question and one many of you have had to grappled with, I’m sure. Personally, I never attempt wave counts on individual companies, but I do regularly follow stock averages, such as the S&P 500 (which works great). If I managed a fund and wanted to use wave theory as a basis for choosing and trading stocks, this is how I’d go about it.

First and foremost, using a major stock average (i.e., the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, Russell 5000, etc.), I would determine whether the primary trend is up or down. From there, I would break that particular stock average into its component parts or sectors (industrials, technology, retail, financials, etc.). I’d then construct wave counts on each sector to see how its trend agreed with the larger average. Of all the sectors analyzed, I’d choose the TOP 3-5 that most agreed with the larger average’s trend or that appeared the strongest. Then I would pick the 3-5 largest stocks in that sector and invest in them. 

I would not attempt analysis on individual stocks. Not only do I think it is unnecessary and time-consuming, but probably not productive. Sectors and averages work much better, as Francisco indicates in his question.

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-103

Answers to Common Elliott and NEoWave Questions

ANSWER:

Over the last 3 years, I’ve answered more than 100 important questions in this forum on NEoWave, its relation to Elliott Wave, on pattern development, wave relationships and new NEoWave phenomenon. 

With the recent addition of a SEARCH function you can use this “Question of the Week” forum to easily find answers to many of your burning questions. Simply type in a few keywords in the “Search” window at left. In seconds you will be presented with a list of possible answers. Read the title of each to quickly decide if it addresses your query. 

You are invited to use this valuable resource, any time, 24-hours-a-day. Best of all, you don’t have to be a subscriber to benefit – its FREE to the public!

پرسش و پاسخ با گلن نیلی-102

I have been practicing orthodox Elliott Wave for years. If I upgrade to NEoWave, would it be difficult to understand? I’m concerned NEoWave theory appears to be in opposition to Elliott Wave.

ANSWER:

This is a very interesting question with many subtle, probably unintended, facets. First, suggesting NEoWave is in opposition to Elliott Wave is like saying calculus is in opposition to algebra. The one area in which there may exist opposition is in the conclusions of a NEoWave analyst compared to that of an orthodox Elliott Wave analyst. Your question also implies that if something is difficult, even if it is more accurate, it may not be worth learning. When it comes to the world of money and investing, isn’t increased precision and accuracy the whole point?

Most people have no personal, day-to-day need for calculus. In fact, most people’s attitude is like that of Mary Johnson (taken from the internet) who said, “My best day in Calc 101 at Southern Cal was the day I had to cut class to get a root canal.

Fortunately, for the rest of us, a very small number of people do love and understand calculus and know how to apply it to solve complex, real-world problems. Some simple applications of calculus include determining the surface area of a three dimensional object, the volume of a three dimensional object, water pressure at different depths, air pressure at different heights, and probabilities of complex events. All important questions when developing consumer products, cars, airplanes, forecasting the weather, etc. 

Even though you did not say it directly, I sense you are indirectly asking me “Is NEoWave worth learning – does the extra complexity pay off in the end?” and the answer to that question is “Absolutely”! In the near future I will prove my answer, much to the dismay of orthodox Elliott Wave analyst’s, when I release “NEOWAVE: A History of Success!” That presentation will show dozens of highly accurate market calls made by me over the last 25+ years – many at the time were contrary to those made by the orthodox Elliott Wave camp – which will prove the accuracy and superiority of NEoWave.